President Joe Biden
As concerns grow about President Joe Biden losing Black voters to Donald Trump, the number of Black eligible voters could swell to 34 million this year, according to a report by the Pew Research Center, a prominent national think tank that conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, content analysis on race and other issues impacting America.
The study comes as Trump and Biden get closer to a rematch where Black voters could once again play a key factor in determining the winner, as in the 2020 presidential race. Biden is losing support among Blacks, many of whom are drifting toward voting for Trump.
The rising number of eligible Black voters in red southern states has the potential to repeat history, like it did in 2020 when Democrats in Georgia flipped the state to blue to elect Biden president. Today, in Georgia, a closely watched swing state, Black Americans account for a third of eligible voters, according to Pew Research. In 2020, 92 percent of single-race Black, non-Hispanic voters cast a vote for Democrat Joe Biden, while only 8 percent backed Republican Donald Trump, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of validated voters.
In its study, the Pew Research Center defines eligible voters as citizens ages 18 and older who live in America’s 50 states and the District of Columbia.
Not all eligible voters are actually registered to vote, the center notes. Like in the 2020 race, activist organizations like Black Votes Matter are launching campaigns this election season to boost Black voters and Black turnout at the polls.
Pew Research’s report said about seven-in-ten Black people in the U.S. are eligible to vote, a higher share than among Hispanics and Asian Americans. Black Americans are more likely to be eligible to vote than some other groups because a high share are ages 18 and older (73 percent) and an even larger share are citizens (96 percent).
According to Pew Research, the number of Black eligible voters has been slowly rising in the past two decades. In 2012, Black voters represented 13.2 percent of all eligible voters. In the last U.S. presidential election in 2020, they represented 13.5 percent.
Between 2020 and 2024, that number of Black eligible voters has grown by an estimated 7.1 percent, compared to 15.3 percent for Asian eligible voters and 12.1 percent for Hispanic eligible voters.
However, the study said in this year’s presidential race, Black voters could make up 14 percent of voters on election day.
Those activists will have a large Black eligible voter population to work with.
According to Pew Research, 34 million Black Americans are projected to account for 14 percent of eligible voters in the U.S. in November, according to Pew Research Center projections.
The percentage of eligible voters who are Black has risen slowly in the past two decades. In 2012, for example, Black voters represented 13.2 percent of all eligible voters. In the last U.S. presidential election in 2020, they represented 13.5 percent.
Between 2020 and 2024, that number of Black eligible voters has grown by an estimated 7.1 percent, compared to 15.3 percent among Asian eligible voters and 12.1 percent for Hispanic eligible voters. But this year, the percentage of eligible Black voters could reach its highest at 14 percent, according to Pew Research.
Pew Research said regionally, more than half of Black eligible voters (57 percent) live in Southern states. The Midwest (17 percent) and Northeast (16 percent) have the next-highest shares of the nation’s Black eligible voters, while relatively few live in the West (10 percent).
As of 2022, about half of Black eligible voters live in one of eight states, Pew Research said.
Texas has the largest number, with 2.9 million, followed by Georgia and Florida (2.6 million each). New York (2.4 million), California (2.0 million), North Carolina (1.8 million), and Maryland and Illinois (1.4 million each) round out the top 8.
Pew Research shows these states account for 52 percent of Black eligible voters in the 50 states and the District of Columbia.
In Washington D.C., Black voters made up 45 percent or nearly half of all eligible voters in the nation’s capital in 2022, a higher share than in any state. Other places with large shares of Black eligible voters are Mississippi (37 percent), Georgia (33 percent), Maryland (33 percent) and Louisiana (32 percent).
Pew Research’s report said Black eligible voters differ from the overall population of eligible voters by age, education and other factors.
The report said around one-in-four Black eligible voters (23 percent) have a bachelor’s degree, lower than the share among all U.S. adults eligible to vote (33 percent). Another 34 percent of Black eligible voters have some college education or an associate’s degree. The remaining 43 percent have a high school diploma or less, compared with 36 percent of all eligible voters.
The report also said Black eligible voters are more likely than other eligible voters to be women (53 percent vs. 51 percent). They also tend to be younger than eligible voters overall: 60 percent of Black eligible voters are under the age of 50, compared with 52 percent of all U.S. eligible voters, according to Pew Research.
Four years ago, Black voters saved Biden’s campaign during the Democratic Primary where he trailed Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg. Biden went on to win the White House
But four years later, some Blacks have grown disillusioned with Biden, as his approval ratings remain at 39 percent, the lowest for a president in 15 years.
While many voters express concern about Biden’s age, Blacks remain unhappy with Biden’s support for Israel and the spiraling migrant crisis that’s impacting urban neighborhoods in major cities.
Others have grown weary and disconnected with the Democratic Party, which has been accused of being out of touch with the Black struggle.
Last December, according to a poll by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs, 50 percent of Black adults said they approve of Biden, compared with 86 percent in July 2021.
A recent ABC News poll said 57 percent of Democrats are happy with Biden being the party’s nominee, compared to 72 percent of Republicans being satisfied with Trump being their nominee.
Former President Barack Obama and Congressman Jim Clyburn have expressed concern about Biden’s ability to win over Black voters this time around. Obama and top Democrats have expressed concerns that Biden has failed to establish strong voter bases in key states in his bid for re-election.
Earlier this month, Biden spoke at Mother Emanuel A.M.E. Church in Charleston, South Carolina, where nine Blacks were killed by a white man in 2015 during an evening prayer meeting. While Biden spoke of the “poison of white supremacy, a group of young protestors stood up and challenged the president on his support for Israel and its occupation of Gaza.
Some Baptists viewed Biden’s political speech as inappropriate and pandering to win back Black voters.
Meanwhile, Trump continues to gain momentum for the Republican nomination after winning the Iowa Caucus, despite not campaigning in that state or participating in debates with opponents, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley.
Trump is courting Black voters as they drift away from Biden and the Democratic Party. Last November, the New York Times and Siena College found that 22 percent of Black voters in six of the most important battleground states, (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), said they would support Trump in next year’s election, and 71 percent would back Biden.
The drift contrasts 2016, where Trump won just 8 percent of Black voters nationally and in 2020 just 6 percent.
Next week, the organization Black Voters Matter (BVM) will launch a major campaign to register Black voters, which it hopes will boost Black turnout and keep Biden in office.
With voting rights a concern after strict laws were passed in Georgia and some other states, BVM announced on its website its “We Fight Back,” a national campaign to rally Black voters and call attention to issues of injustice and inequality in Black communities across the country.
From January 25 through January 28, BVM will host a three-day conference in Charleston, South Carolina, where Blacks first propelled Biden to the top of the 2020 Democratic race for president. The “We Fight Back” campaign will include local and national voting rights organizations, social justice advocates, faith leaders and HBCU students. BVM said the “ongoing attacks on voting rights taking place across the nation are what led BVM to convene its local partners, including Carolina For All, the NAACP State Conference, Pick 42, MWAM Benevolence and South Carolina Progressive Network, and its national partners, Transformative Justice Coalition, Legal Defense Fund, the Lawyers Committee, Black Futures Lab,100 Black Men and Fair Vote. Collectively the organizations will continue to call on Congress to pass national voting rights legislation, to strategize on ways to combat the wave of misinformation and disinformation targeting Black and marginalized communities, and to develop an actionable roadmap for grassroots organizers to effectively inform and engage voters given the current political climate in the country.
BVM notes that, “The convening aims to uplift the critical role Black voters will play in the 2024 presidential elections and emphasize the strength of the Black electorate even in the face of ongoing attacks on voting rights.
“Despite being criticized for low turnout, Black voters consistently show up and fight for representation, equal access to voting, health care, affordable housing, education, and jobs, and refuse to be erased or ignored by lawmakers. “Currently, Black voters make up over 50 percent of the Democratic primary electorate in South Carolina and are uniquely positioned to center the key issues that impact Black communities in the broader national conversation.”
