Nationwide crime and homicide rates are declining, especially in top five major U.S. cities such as Chicago, New York, Los Angeles, Houston, and Phoenix. Many municipalities have seen significant reductions in violent crime, with some reporting double-digit decreases in homicides compared to past years.
New York experienced a nearly 3 percent reduction in overall index crime in 2024, with 3,662 fewer incidents. Homicides declined by 11 percent in 2023. Los Angeles saw a 16 percent decrease in homicides in 2023 and reported a decrease in violent crime overall. Houston, the fourth largest U.S. city, reported a significant drop in homicides in 2023, while the fifth largest, Phoenix, claimed a 4 percent decrease in overall crime and a significant 28 percent decrease in homicides in 2024.
Despite systemic racial inequities throughout the city, Chicago boasted a 13 percent reduction in homicides in 2023. City officials’ site increased investments in mental health treatment and enhanced law enforcement strategies as contributors to the decline.
The city and county have significantly increased their investment in violence prevention programs, with Chicago allocating over $100 million in its fiscal year 2025 budget to community-based violence prevention initiatives. This funding supports a range of programs aimed at reducing gun violence, including street outreach, trauma-informed care, youth development, and employment initiatives.
The Chicago Police Department budget has also increased from $1.94 billion in the 2023 fiscal year to $2.1 billion in 2025, reflecting an increase of about $160 million or an 8.2 percent rise in two years. When factoring in additional labor expenses such as pensions, healthcare benefits, overtime, legal settlements, and other indirect costs, the total expenditure related to policing in Chicago for 2025 could approach $3.8 billion, according to the city’s online portal.
Cook County has allocated more than $100 million in FY2025 toward violence prevention and addressing the root causes of crime. The county has designated $103.1 million to its Equity Fund, which supports various initiatives aimed at addressing structural inequities. This includes funding for gun violence prevention grants, returning resident programs, and the development of Community Violence Intervention (CVI) strategies in collaboration with state and city partners.
The county’s Justice Advisory Council received $20 million to support community-based organizations focused on violence prevention, restorative justice, and reentry services. This funding aims to empower local groups that work directly with at-risk populations, and $15 million was allocated to expand behavioral health services, including crisis intervention. Another $10 million was designated for youth-focused initiatives, such as after-school programs, mentorship, and job training, to provide positive alternatives and reduce youth involvement in criminal activities.
In Illinois’ Fiscal Year 2025 budget, over $300 million has been allocated to crime prevention and violence reduction initiatives, such as the Restore, Reinvest, Renew (R3) Program, which received $200 million to fund community organizations in areas disproportionately affected by violence and poverty; and an additional $4 million is earmarked for statewide capacity-building grants to enhance the effectiveness of violence prevention programs.
Under the Reimagine Public Safety Act, the state invested $150 million in funding to reduce firearm violence, with more than $50 million allocated specifically for CVI services in Chicago. Private and philanthropic organizations have also contributed to these efforts. Civic and business groups have pledged $100 million to fund anti-violence investments, renewing their commitment to support community-based programs.
Both New York and Los Angeles took similar approaches to crime reduction. This year, Governor Kathy Hochul announced an additional $20.7 million in state funding to support SNUG Street Outreach programs across 14 communities in New York State. These programs employ outreach workers and case managers to engage individuals at risk of gun violence, aiming to change behavior and increase opportunities. The governor’s 2025 budget allocates $347 million to continue New York’s efforts to reduce and prevent gun violence.
Los Angeles launched its Community Safety Partnership (CPS), a program that fosters collaboration between community members and law enforcement to build trust and reduce crime. By integrating gang interventionists and preventionists, CSP has contributed to significant reductions in violent crime in participating neighborhoods, according to the city’s website. Los Angeles County’s 2025-26 Recommended Budget includes $287.7 million for the Care First and Community Investment initiative, with total available funding of $571.6 million, including unspent funds from previous years.
The California state budget for 2024-25 provides $17.8 billion from the General Fund for judicial and criminal justice programs, including support for program operations and capital outlay projects.
Researchers at the Brennan Center for Justice examined national crime trends. Their analyses indicate that violent crime, including homicides, has been decreasing since 2021, with significant declines observed in 2023. They attribute this reduction to multiple factors, such as community-based violence intervention programs, increased public investment in social services, demographic shifts, and enhanced data-driven policing practices.
Last March, a televised report from WTTW News highlighted that although crime overall is falling nationwide, Chicago’s homicide rates are not declining as quickly as those in New York and Los Angeles.
According to the University of Chicago Crime Lab, Black residents continue to be “disproportionately impacted by gun violence, being 22 times more likely to be killed compared to White residents,” the research group noted at the end of 2024.
“Chicago murders, and non-fatal shootings continued to decline from their recent peak in 2020 and 2021. Despite these encouraging trends, Chicago continues to grapple with inequities tied to race and geography, as well as increased violent crime on aggregate,” the Crime Lab wrote in “2024 End-of-Year Analysis: Chicago Crime Trends, noting a decrease in homicides and non-fatal shootings.
“While violent crime is down from last year, it is still higher than the 5-year average. The primary contributors to this upward trend are aggravated assaults, aggravated batteries, and robberies (excluding carjackings),” the Lab reported.
It can be noted that nationwide, homicides experienced a historic drop in 2023, marking the largest single-year decline in two decades. In the first quarter of 2025, Chicago recorded 96 murders, a drop of more than 15 percent from the same period in the previous year.
The FBI’s latest Universal Crime Report (UCR) indicates that violent crime and property crime also decreased in 2023. Because there is no federal law that requires local police agencies to submit data to the feds, it is considered a voluntary reporting system.
However, the federal government also tracks unreported crime through its National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). The U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) estimates the number of unreported crimes by interviewing nearly 90 households (or 200,000 people age 12 and older) to determine the percentage of violent crimes and property crimes that were unreported to police for various reasons.
Cases of rape, domestic violence and other violent assaults may go underreported due to victim’s fear, distrust of the court system to deliver justice and documented historical and social factors. Many Black and Latino communities have experienced racial profiling, police brutality, and systemic over-policing. On the other hand, these same communities often report slow police responses, indifference in cases of sexual assault or domestic violence, or fear of escalation and harm or death to themselves or someone in their households.
Undocumented Latinos, Caribbean, or African citizens may also fear that contact with law enforcement could lead to ICE involvement or deportation, even if they are crime victims, according to the Urban Institute.
JAILS & PRISONS
Regarding incarceration rates, BJS indicated that in 2023, local jails housed 664,200 individuals, which is similar to the midyear count of 663,100 in 2022. This represents a 9 percent decrease from the inmate population of 731,200 ten years prior.
In February, the Illinois Department of Corrections (IDOC) reported a total prison population of 26,580 individuals. This figure represents a significant decrease from the state’s peak incarceration numbers, marking the lowest level in almost three decades. The state’s prison facilities have an operational capacity of 35,786, indicating a vacancy rate of approximately 26 percent.
Cook County Jail housed 5,674 individuals in custody, according to the Cook County Sheriff’s Office, representing a significant decline over the past three years. In January 2024, the average daily jail population was approximately 4,675, a 58 percent decrease from the peak population of 11,248 in September 2013
The reduction in local jail and state prison populations aligns with broader criminal justice reforms in Illinois, including the implementation of the Pretrial Fairness Act in September 2023, which abolished cash bail and imposed stricter limits on pretrial detention.
Nationally, the rate of incarceration stood at 198 persons per 100,000 U.S. residents, a 14 percent decline from 231 jail inmates per 100,000 a decade ago. From July 2022 to June 2023, local jails nationwide recorded 7.6 million admissions. While this represented a 4 percent increase from the 7.3 million admissions the year before, annual admissions were 35 percent lower than a decade ago, when admissions totaled 11.7 million.